Macro Watch


Economics Newsletter Video

Macro Watch is a video newsletter published quarterly by Richard Duncan. It analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on economic activity and asset prices.

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Category Archives: The Past: Abandoned Principles And Misguided Policies

Watch Richard Duncan’s Course: CAPITALISM IN CRISIS

March 27, 2013

Dear All, I have recorded a two-hour course. It’s called Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis Explained. The course is broken into 15 short lectures and is available on an on-line teaching platform called Udemy. In this course, I use 150 charts and slides to explain how the crisis in the global economy came  Continue Reading »

Helicopter Money

June 30, 2011

A great deal can be learned about the government’s response to this crisis, as well as the mistaken policies that necessitated it, by analysing a speech delivered by Ben Bernanke on 21 November 2002. At that time, Bernanke was a Governor of the Federal Reserve. The speech, to the National Economists Club, was titled “Deflation:  Continue Reading »

Birth Of The Debt Culture

April 26, 2011

Once US dollars ceased to be convertible into gold at the beginning of the 1970s, there was no longer any constraint on the amount of dollar-denominated debt that could be created by the Federal Reserve system or the Treasury Department, or, for that matter, the private sector. For the next decade, fear of inflation and  Continue Reading »

A New Economic Paradigm

April 19, 2011

Since the 1980s, a culture of debt has arisen in the United States. That change was the consequence of a misguided trade policy that gave rise to a current account deficit of unprecedented size. Between 1982 and 2008, the United States imported $7.4 trillion more than it exported. It financed the shortfall on credit. That  Continue Reading »

The Loose Cannon Credit Crisis

April 9, 2011

Starting in the 1970s, international credit flows began to destabilize the global economy. One country after another was plunged into crisis as dollar-denominated credit from abroad produced short-term booms followed by longer-lasting busts. Each crisis threatened the solvency of the international financial system; and in each crisis the large international banks that had made the  Continue Reading »

ABANDONED PRINCIPLES

April 4, 2011

There should be no confusion as to the origins of the global economic crisis that began in 2008. This crisis was set in motion in the 1960s, when policymakers in the United States abandoned the core principles of economic orthodoxy: balanced government budgets and sound money backed by gold. Large budget deficits and the possibility  Continue Reading »

Why Won't Bernanke Come Clean on Glut?

March 9, 2011

Perhaps the greatest mystery in the world of finance and economics is why Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke refuses to acknowledge that paper money creation by central banks produced the “global savings glut” which, according to him, destabilized the global economy and led to the crisis of 2008. Six years ago, Bernanke unleashed his Global Savings  Continue Reading »

Debt-Financed Trade Caused The New Depression

February 5, 2011

The United States trade deficit hit $2 million A MINUTE in 2006. That was the rate ($800 billion that year) at which the US was going into debt to the rest of the world. When Adam Smith (1723 – 1790) and David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) wrote about the benefits of free trade, they could  Continue Reading »

THE PAST: ABANDONED PRINCIPLES AND MISGUIDED POLICIES

December 11, 2010

When I was born in 1960, the political leaders of the United States believed very strongly that it was their duty to balance the government’s budget and to ensure that the country’s money was sound, in other words backed by gold. They believed these things just as their fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers before them had;  Continue Reading »