Category Archives: The Global Economic Crisis: Past, Present and Future

The Macro Analytics Interview on YouTube

November 8, 2013

I had an interesting conversation with Gordon T. Long of Macro Analytics recently. We discussed our economic future and what investors must monitor in this new age of fiat money. I introduce “The Liquidity Gauge” here for the first time. Gord did a great job of weaving charts into the interview and posting it on  Continue Reading »

New Radio Interview: Why No Taper?

September 26, 2013

Last week I was in Kuala Lumpur.  There I had an interesting conversation with Julian Ng  of BFM radio.  We discussed: Why the Fed decided not to taper QE How the economy really works now The purpose and goal of Capitalism, and Why it is impossible to return to a Gold Standard. To listen to  Continue Reading »

Watch Richard Duncan’s New Course: How The Economy Really Works

August 15, 2013

My second video Course is now available on Udemy.com. It’s called: How The Economy Really Works. This 2-hour Course deals with the present. It explains how our economic system works now. It’s divided into 11 lectures. Lecture 1: What’s Changed? Lecture 2: Don’t Call It Capitalism Lecture 3: Who’s In Charge? Lecture 4: GDP 101  Continue Reading »

How The Economy Really Works

May 10, 2013

So far, 450 of you have signed up for my on-line video course, Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis Explained. Thank you! I appreciate your interest and your support. As you know, Capitalism In Crisis focuses on the past, on the causes of the crisis. Today, I would like to let you all know  Continue Reading »

Watch Richard Duncan’s Course: CAPITALISM IN CRISIS

March 27, 2013

Dear All, I have recorded a two-hour course. It’s called Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis Explained. The course is broken into 15 short lectures and is available on an on-line teaching platform called Udemy. In this course, I use 150 charts and slides to explain how the crisis in the global economy came  Continue Reading »

When Will This New Depression End?

March 8, 2013

The following comments, written specifically for the Spanish language edition of The New Depression, were written in early March 2013, sixteen months after the original manuscript was completed at the end of October 2011. In The New Depression, I wrote that the fate of the global economy depended on whether credit would once again begin  Continue Reading »

The New Left Review Interviews Richard Duncan

November 30, 2012

The following interview was printed in the September/October issue of the New Left Review. RICHARD DUNCAN A NEW GLOBAL DEPRESSION? Interview You were one of the very few analysts to predict the full enormity of the financial crisis, writing as early as 2003 of a coming credit crunch that would have ramifications throughout the asset-backed  Continue Reading »

The Capital Account Interview: The Death of Capitalism and Everything After

October 18, 2012

I recently had a lively conversation with charismatic Lauren Lyster on Capital Account in Washington D.C. We discussed the death of Capitalism in World War I, the rise of Creditism, QE3, gold and how to avoid a new Great Depression. To watch this video, Google “Capital Account Richard Duncan” and it will pop up.

The Financial Times Book Review Of The New Depression

August 1, 2012

The New Depression was reviewed by Samuel Brittan in The Financial Times on July 30th. Please find the link below: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/a941cd5e-d5a8-11e1-af40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz22HeRw1R1

How Close Are We to New Great Depression?

July 25, 2012

Last week I was in London to promote The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy. The week began at 7:30 Monday morning on Squawk Box Europe. Please find the link below. I was told this clip was the most watched segment that day AND the following day. http://www.cnbc.com/id/48193471/How_Close_Are_We_to_New_Great_Depression http://www.cnbc.com/id/48193471/How_Close_Are_We_to_New_Great_Depression

The Policy Options

May 18, 2012

From Chapter 9 of The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy – Capitalism was an economic system in which the private sector drove the economic process through saving, capital accumulation and investment. The government’s role was very limited. The United States has not had that kind of economic system for decades. Today,  Continue Reading »

The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy

April 20, 2012

My third book on the global economic crisis is now in print and available on Kindle. It’s called The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy. Please find its Preface copied below: Preface When the United States removed the gold backing from the dollar in 1968, the nature of money changed. The result  Continue Reading »

A “Deer In The Headlights” Policy Freeze?

August 4, 2011

The agreement reached to raise the US government debt ceiling may mark the beginning of the kind of “deer in the headlights” policy freeze described in the last chapter of The Dollar Crisis. If that agreement is fully implemented, this depression is going to become considerably worse. The excerpts below are taken from The Dollar  Continue Reading »

The Ten Trillion Dollar Milestone

July 18, 2011

A milestone on the road to economic ruin was reached last week. Total Foreign Exchange Reserves topped $10 trillion. That means central banks have created the equivalent of $10 trillion of fiat money that they have used to buy the currencies of other countries. That figure does not include the money central banks have created  Continue Reading »

Helicopter Money

June 30, 2011

A great deal can be learned about the government’s response to this crisis, as well as the mistaken policies that necessitated it, by analysing a speech delivered by Ben Bernanke on 21 November 2002. At that time, Bernanke was a Governor of the Federal Reserve. The speech, to the National Economists Club, was titled “Deflation:  Continue Reading »

The Corruption Of Capitalism, Preface to the 2011 Edition

June 16, 2011

Preface to the 2011 Edition of The Corruption of Capitalism [Now available on Kindle and NOOK] From the early 1980s, debt-fuelled consumption in the United States drove global economic growth and facilitated the spread of globalization. Economic policy was formulated based upon the belief that markets are most efficient when left unregulated. Exchange rates floated,  Continue Reading »

An Interview with Richard Duncan on China, Europe, & QE3

June 1, 2011

The following interview was published in THE EDGE SINGAPORE on May 30, 2011 By ASSIF SHAMEEN Richard Duncan, author of the seminal The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, an international bestseller that predicted the recent global economic crisis with extraordinary accuracy, commands a lot of respect among Asian policymakers. Armed with a Master’s degree in  Continue Reading »

Credit Growth Drives Economic Growth, Until It Doesn’t

May 19, 2011

The single most important thing to understand about economics in the age of paper money is that credit growth drives economic growth. Before the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international monetary system in 1971, there was a difference between money and credit. There no longer is. Paper dollars and US treasury bonds denominated in paper  Continue Reading »

China: Every Boom Busts

May 3, 2011

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, every economic boom has been followed by an economic bust. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. Over the past 20 years, China has experienced the greatest economic boom in history. It is only a matter of time before the great Chinese bubble pops. China’s economic model  Continue Reading »

Birth Of The Debt Culture

April 26, 2011

Once US dollars ceased to be convertible into gold at the beginning of the 1970s, there was no longer any constraint on the amount of dollar-denominated debt that could be created by the Federal Reserve system or the Treasury Department, or, for that matter, the private sector. For the next decade, fear of inflation and  Continue Reading »

A New Economic Paradigm

April 19, 2011

Since the 1980s, a culture of debt has arisen in the United States. That change was the consequence of a misguided trade policy that gave rise to a current account deficit of unprecedented size. Between 1982 and 2008, the United States imported $7.4 trillion more than it exported. It financed the shortfall on credit. That  Continue Reading »

The Loose Cannon Credit Crisis

April 9, 2011

Starting in the 1970s, international credit flows began to destabilize the global economy. One country after another was plunged into crisis as dollar-denominated credit from abroad produced short-term booms followed by longer-lasting busts. Each crisis threatened the solvency of the international financial system; and in each crisis the large international banks that had made the  Continue Reading »

ABANDONED PRINCIPLES

April 4, 2011

There should be no confusion as to the origins of the global economic crisis that began in 2008. This crisis was set in motion in the 1960s, when policymakers in the United States abandoned the core principles of economic orthodoxy: balanced government budgets and sound money backed by gold. Large budget deficits and the possibility  Continue Reading »

BERNANKE’S CHOICE

March 21, 2011

For twelve years the US trade deficit financed the US budget deficit and held down US interest rates. From 1996 to 2008, the US trade deficit exceeded the government’s budget deficit every year. The dollars sent abroad to pay for the trade deficit were accumulated by the central banks of the trade surplus countries, who  Continue Reading »

Why Won't Bernanke Come Clean on Glut?

March 9, 2011

Perhaps the greatest mystery in the world of finance and economics is why Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke refuses to acknowledge that paper money creation by central banks produced the “global savings glut” which, according to him, destabilized the global economy and led to the crisis of 2008. Six years ago, Bernanke unleashed his Global Savings  Continue Reading »

The Great Depression and The New Depression

February 21, 2011

A worldwide economic depression began in 2008. This New Depression was caused by the same factors as the Great Depression and followed exactly the same pattern. Thus far, however, the New Depression has been milder than the Great Depression because the policy response this time has been completely different. Both depressions were caused because governments  Continue Reading »

Debt-Financed Trade Caused The New Depression

February 5, 2011

The United States trade deficit hit $2 million A MINUTE in 2006. That was the rate ($800 billion that year) at which the US was going into debt to the rest of the world. When Adam Smith (1723 – 1790) and David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) wrote about the benefits of free trade, they could  Continue Reading »

What Every American Needs To Understand About The Economy

January 19, 2011

As the United States debates its economic future in light of large government budget deficits, it is important that the public has a clear understanding of how the economy works. A good starting point for understanding how the economy works is to understand how it is measured. Economies are measured in terms of their Gross  Continue Reading »

THE FUTURE: AVERTING DISASTER

December 22, 2010

The future – the happiness and prosperity of mankind – will be determined by how global supply and global demand are brought back into balance. If the means are found to expand aggregate demand sufficiently and sustainably, then the global excess supply will be absorbed and the global economy will begin to grow again. If,  Continue Reading »

THE PRESENT: ON THE BRINK OF DISASTER

December 15, 2010

The global economy is in crisis. Government intervention on a multi-trillion dollar scale is the only thing preventing a worldwide collapse into a new great depression. This crisis is structural, not cyclical. At its core is the fact that global production, swollen by limitless credit denominated in fiat money, greatly exceeds the consumption that can  Continue Reading »

THE PAST: ABANDONED PRINCIPLES AND MISGUIDED POLICIES

December 11, 2010

When I was born in 1960, the political leaders of the United States believed very strongly that it was their duty to balance the government’s budget and to ensure that the country’s money was sound, in other words backed by gold. They believed these things just as their fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers before them had;  Continue Reading »

The Past: Abandoned principles and misguided policies

November 25, 2010

Policy Mistakes Unbalanced Budgets The End of Sound Money Promoting Trade with no concern for the balance of trade Financial Sector Deregulation Economic Management through bubble creation. Trade The collapse of Bretton Woods Trade Imbalances Flaws in The Dollar Standard: no automatic adjustment mechanism. Globalization: trade imbalances, disinflation, interest rates Financing the trade imbalances with  Continue Reading »

The Present: On the brink of disaster

November 25, 2010

The Condition and Outlook for the global economy How is the GDP calculated? The breakdown of global GDP by country The Outlook for the US private Sector Personal Consumption Business Investment Trade The Outlook for the US Government Sector: Government Life Support The US is the driver of global economic growth The Outlook for the  Continue Reading »

The Future: What Must Be Done

November 25, 2010

Understanding our starting point: the brink of disaster. The life raft analogy. What caused the Great Depression? Policy Options Cut government spending now Maintain current levels of government spending Increase government spending to restructure the economy Quantitative Easing: Economic management through money creation The Bad Future: large budget deficits and eventual large scale monetization of  Continue Reading »

Investment Implications

November 25, 2010

What is Quantitative Easing? The most probable outcome A diversified portfolio Cash Flow: Make something and sell it. 2 – Why is audience important for college papers? 3 – Writing to a classmate. 4 – How to write academically. 5 – Academic writing. 6 – What happens to vocabulary college papers Buy college papers of  Continue Reading »

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