Category Archives: How my views differ from those of other economists and other schools of thought.
August 6, 2016
In 1963, Murray Rothbard published a book called America’s Great Depression, in which he argued that President Herbert Hoover made the Great Depression worse by introducing too many government policies to support the economy, when “the proper injunction to government in a depression is cut the budget and leave the economy strictly alone.” Although considered…
May 6, 2016
I highly recommend you listen to this free MacroVoices podcast. It explains the real origins of our global economic crisis. It also describes how the crisis is likely to play out during the years ahead. Richard Duncan: What the history of monetary policy tells us about our future Erik Townsend welcomes Richard Duncan to MacroVoices….
April 25, 2016
This interview was conducted by Andrew Mazzone, President of the Henry George School of Social Science. Click on the link below to watch the video. Here are some of the topics we discussed: What caused the global economic crisis? Was the crisis the result of a plan or did it just happen by chance? What…
April 18, 2016
Seven years of weak credit growth in the US have brought the world to the brink of a deflationary global recession. As a result, political instability is increasing and geopolitical tensions are on the rise. In the new Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we first consider why the increase in debt in the United States…
March 11, 2016
Yesterday, the European Central Bank expanded its QE program by one-third and cut bank deposit rates deeper into negative territory. How did the markets react? Stock prices fell, while bond yields and the Euro rose – the exact opposite of what the ECB had expected and hoped for. Is this yet another indication that central…
January 24, 2016
In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives the global economy and the financial markets. There have been several important “aha” moments: Soon after I began my career in Hong Kong in 1986, I realized that ultra-low wages…
December 3, 2015
I could have used many different headlines to announce this interview (which was conducted by Cris Sheridan for the outstanding financial website, Financial Sense). I could have used: “Pray For The Dollar Standard” “How Our International Monetary System Works” “Why The Chinese Yuan Will Never Be An Important International Reserve Currency” or, “There Will Be…
April 16, 2015
Yesterday, I send a blog with a link to a new CNBC interview and a second link to a free video explaining the details of how central banks have effectively cancelled trillions of dollars of government debt and are in the process of cancelling trillions more. The link to the second video did not work,…
April 15, 2015
This morning I was interviewed on CNBC Asia in Hong Kong. We discussed how central banks around the world are effectively cancelling trillions of dollars worth of government debt. Here’s the link to the interview: https://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000371111 This is a very important subject with incredibly important policy implication, but few people understand it. I hope you…
April 7, 2015
Recent economic data has been startlingly bad. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests US GDP will grow by only 0.1% during the first quarter. The financial markets are positioned for interest rate hikes. How would they respond if this new economic “soft patch” turns into a recession – as I expect it will? If the…
January 17, 2015
The key to understanding the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century is this: Credit growth drives economic growth. From 1952 to 2008, every time credit (adjusted for inflation) grew by less than 2% the United States went into recession and did not recover until there was a new surge of credit expansion….
November 22, 2014
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary is simply one of the very best sources of information and analysis on monetary, economic and geo-political news available to the public today. Recently, David McAlvany invited me back to his show to discuss the state of the global economy at the end of 2014. It is always a pleasure to…
October 17, 2014
Yesterday morning, St Louis Fed President James Bullard stopped the stock market crash in its tracks. In a live interview on Bloomberg Television, he said: “…I think a reasonable response of the Fed in this situation would be to … go on pause on the taper…” (i.e. to extend Quantitative Easing). When he began that…
September 9, 2014
A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. Judging from most press reports, it would be easy to form the impression that the US economy is booming. It’s not. This video presents a balanced assessment of the health of the US economy. After $6 trillion of budget deficits, 0%…
July 27, 2014
Capitalism died during the two World Wars. In this speech, I discuss the transformation of our economic system from Capitalism to Creditism during the Twentieth Century. I also describe what may come next, highlighting the extraordinary possibilities Creditism presents, as well as the catastrophic consequences that would follow from its collapse. You need not be…
September 26, 2013
Last week I was in Kuala Lumpur. There I had an interesting conversation with Julian Ng of BFM radio. We discussed: Why the Fed decided not to taper QE How the economy really works now The purpose and goal of Capitalism, and Why it is impossible to return to a Gold Standard. To listen to…
August 13, 2013
A friend who works on Wall Street (W. S.) recently sent me an email in which he pointed out some areas of strength in the US economy. His intention was to imply that I have been way too bearish. He’s a smart guy and he asks some valid questions. This turned into a multi-email debate….
November 13, 2012
Please find below an interview posted on MarketWatch today. Bangkok-based economist and author Richard Duncan says a chorus of economists pointing to a rebound in China may well be proven wrong, as he believes the nation is headed into a serious crisis. Since the darkest hours of the 2008 global economic meltdown, China has made…
October 18, 2012
I recently had a lively conversation with charismatic Lauren Lyster on Capital Account in Washington D.C. We discussed the death of Capitalism in World War I, the rise of Creditism, QE3, gold and how to avoid a new Great Depression. To watch this video, Google “Capital Account Richard Duncan” and it will pop up.
October 8, 2012
I recently had a long chat with Jeff Glor on Author Talk, CBSNews.com in New York. Longer interviews like this one are a nice change from the ones that last only 3 to 5 minutes, where it’s necessary to speak in bullet points. Here’s the link (Note: If the link does not take you directly…