Category Archives: How my views differ from those of other economists and other schools of thought.

March 9, 2017

Trump’s Recipe For Disaster – Free Podcast – Correct Link

Please note: I attached the wrong link to this podcast last night, so I am reposting this blog with the correct link. Sorry for any inconvenience caused. In February, I went on a roadshow to meet with institutional investors in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles.   I made presentations to roughly two dozen…
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March 8, 2017

Trump’s Recipe For Disaster – Free Podcast

In February, I went on a roadshow to meet with institutional investors in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles.   I made presentations to roughly two dozen investment firms. Collectively they manage well over US$100 billion. The title of my presentation was “Trump’s Recipe For Disaster”. I recently discussed this presentation with Cris Sheridan…
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February 12, 2017

My Warning To Some Of The World’s Largest Investment Managers

I’ve just returned from a couple of very interesting weeks in the United States. In mid-January, I had the opportunity to meet Alan Greenspan and to ask him a question that I believe is of historic importance. That was the subject of the Macro Watch video uploaded on January 25th. Two weeks later, I was…
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August 6, 2016

Libertarian Murray Rothbard Was Dangerously Wrong

In 1963, Murray Rothbard published a book called America’s Great Depression, in which he argued that President Herbert Hoover made the Great Depression worse by introducing too many government policies to support the economy, when “the proper injunction to government in a depression is cut the budget and leave the economy strictly alone.” Although considered…
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May 6, 2016

Macro Voices Podcast: Highly Recommended

I highly recommend you listen to this free MacroVoices podcast.  It explains the real origins of our global economic crisis.  It also describes how the crisis is likely to play out during the years ahead. Richard Duncan: What the history of monetary policy tells us about our future Erik Townsend welcomes Richard Duncan to MacroVoices….
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April 25, 2016

America’s Future: When’s The Day Of Reckoning?

This interview was conducted by Andrew Mazzone, President of the Henry George School of Social Science.  Click on the link below to watch the video. Here are some of the topics we discussed: What caused the global economic crisis? Was the crisis the result of a plan or did it just happen by chance? What…
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April 18, 2016

Our Economic and Political Problems Look Set To Multiply

Seven years of weak credit growth in the US have brought the world to the brink of a deflationary global recession. As a result, political instability is increasing and geopolitical tensions are on the rise. In the new Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we first consider why the increase in debt in the United States…
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March 11, 2016

Are The Central Banks Out Of Ammunition?

Yesterday, the European Central Bank expanded its QE program by one-third and cut bank deposit rates deeper into negative territory. How did the markets react? Stock prices fell, while bond yields and the Euro rose – the exact opposite of what the ECB had expected and hoped for. Is this yet another indication that central…
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January 24, 2016

How My Career Shaped My Views On The Global Economy

In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives the global economy and the financial markets. There have been several important “aha” moments: Soon after I began my career in Hong Kong in 1986, I realized that ultra-low wages…
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December 3, 2015

Interview: Austrian Economics Would Destroy The World

I could have used many different headlines to announce this interview (which was conducted by Cris Sheridan for the outstanding financial website, Financial Sense). I could have used: “Pray For The Dollar Standard” “How Our International Monetary System Works” “Why The Chinese Yuan Will Never Be An Important International Reserve Currency” or, “There Will Be…
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April 16, 2015

Watch Free Video: QE Is Debt Cancellation

Yesterday, I send a blog with a link to a new CNBC interview and a second link to a free video explaining the details of how central banks have effectively cancelled trillions of dollars of government debt and are in the process of cancelling trillions more. The link to the second video did not work,…
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April 15, 2015

New CNBC Interview: QE Is Debt Cancellation

This morning I was interviewed on CNBC Asia in Hong Kong.  We discussed how central banks around the world are effectively cancelling trillions of dollars worth of government debt.  Here’s the link to the interview: https://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000371111 This is a very important subject with incredibly important policy implication, but few people understand it.  I hope you…
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April 7, 2015

Has The Next Recession Begun?

Recent economic data has been startlingly bad. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests US GDP will grow by only 0.1% during the first quarter. The financial markets are positioned for interest rate hikes. How would they respond if this new economic “soft patch” turns into a recession – as I expect it will? If the…
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January 17, 2015

Recession Alert: Weak Credit Growth Points To US Recession Ahead

The key to understanding the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century is this: Credit growth drives economic growth. From 1952 to 2008, every time credit (adjusted for inflation) grew by less than 2% the United States went into recession and did not recover until there was a new surge of credit expansion….
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November 22, 2014

The McAlvany Interview: QE 4? “They’ll have to.”

The McAlvany Weekly Commentary is simply one of the very best sources of information and analysis on monetary, economic and geo-political news available to the public today. Recently, David McAlvany invited me back to his show to discuss the state of the global economy at the end of 2014. It is always a pleasure to…
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October 17, 2014

Bullard’s Call To Extend QE Halts Market Panic

Yesterday morning, St Louis Fed President James Bullard stopped the stock market crash in its tracks. In a live interview on Bloomberg Television, he said: “…I think a reasonable response of the Fed in this situation would be to … go on pause on the taper…” (i.e. to extend Quantitative Easing). When he began that…
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September 9, 2014

How Strong Is The US Economic Recovery?

A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. Judging from most press reports, it would be easy to form the impression that the US economy is booming. It’s not. This video presents a balanced assessment of the health of the US economy. After $6 trillion of budget deficits, 0%…
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