Category Archives: Economics in the Age of Fiat Money

October 2, 2015

Weak Credit Growth Means Recession Ahead

The first thing to understand about the global economy today is that CREDIT GRWOTH DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH. In the new Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we take a look at the latest Financial Accounts Of The United States to analyze recent trends in Credit and Debt. We also forecast credit growth out to the end…
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September 20, 2015

The Five Reasons The Fed Couldn’t (And Still Can’t) Hike Interest Rates

There are five reasons the Fed couldn’t (and still can’t) hike interest rates.   Here they are: The US Economy is too weak. Deflationary Pressures are increasing. The Global Economy is in Recession. Liquidity is already tightening. Chinese Blackmail We look at all these reasons in the new Macro Watch video uploaded today. The first four…
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September 14, 2015

New CNBC Squawk Box Interview

The two engines powering global economic growth, the United States and China, have broken down.  As a result the global economy is losing altitude fast.  This was the subject I discussed during an interview on CNBC Squawk Box this morning in Singapore. To watch this short interview, click on the link below. For all…
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September 7, 2015

Liquidity & Asset Prices: Make Sure You Understand The Connection

Suddenly, the investment world has woken up to the importance of LIQUIDITY and its role in driving asset prices. Over the past week, Liquidity has been in the financial media spotlight like never before. The catalyst for this great awakening seems to have been a research report published by Deutsche Bank on September 1st, The…
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September 4, 2015

Rapid Global Economic Deterioration

In the latest Macro Watch video, we look at the interim results announcement of Standard Chartered PLC to see what they tell us about the health of the global economy. What we find is evidence of rapid global economic deterioration and clues that things are going to become considerably worse before they get better. The…
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August 26, 2015

With Panic Spreading…. Watch Free Video

Panic is spreading through the financial markets and the global economy is rapidly sliding back into severe recession. This worsening crisis won’t come as a surprise to Macro Watch members, who have been warned that a new global slump was inevitable. (Please see the list of some recent Macro Watch videos below.)   For those…
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August 23, 2015

The Prospects For Asset Prices: A Very Dangerous Moment

Last week the global economic slump caught up with Wall Street. Global stocks joined global commodities in a broad-based selloff that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average – and many other indices around the world – into correction territory. By market close on Friday, investor sentiment was verging on panic. What should investors expect next…
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August 15, 2015

A New Interview On The Collapsing Global Economy

I recently spoke with Cris Sheridan, the Senior Editor of The Financial Sense Newshour. We discussed the reasons behind the global economy’s rapid slide back into severe recession, China’s economic breakdown and how we got into this mess in the first place. We also discussed what investors should anticipate next. I hope you’ll listen. Here’s…
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August 12, 2015

Monetary & Fiscal Austerity Explain The New Global Recession

In 2008, the global economic bubble came very close to collapsing into a new great depression. That didn’t happen because global policymakers responded to the crisis by injecting trillions of dollars of monetary and fiscal stimulus. That stimulus succeeded in keeping the global bubble inflated for seven years. Now, however, stimulus has given way to…
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August 3, 2015

China’s Economic Crisis: Watch Free Video

Sixteen months ago, I uploaded a Macro Watch video called “China’s Economic Crisis”. In 14 minutes and with 32 charts, it explained why China’s great economic boom was coming to an end and what that would mean for the rest of the world: Slowing global growth Weakening global corporate profits Falling commodity prices Less growth…
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July 24, 2015

GLOBAL RECESSION: Sudden and Severe

The global economy appears to be moving rapidly back into recession. Commodity prices have crashed to a 13-year low, world industrial production has begun to fall and world trade is contracting. In fact, measured in dollar terms, world trade is collapsing!  In the latest Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we take a close look at…
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July 10, 2015

Unsustainable Wealth

US Household Sector Net Worth has risen by a mind-boggling $30 trillion since the first quarter of 2009. At $85 trillion, it is now 55% higher than at the depth of the crisis – and 25% above its pre-crisis peak. This is how the Fed has made the economy grow: by inflating asset prices.   But…
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July 2, 2015

Credit Growth Slows, Vulnerabilities Increase

In the 21st Century, when there is no longer any difference between money and credit, Credit Growth drives Economic Growth. In the new Macro Watch video, we look at who has been lending the money to fund the credit growth and where their money comes from. We then look ahead to see who will have…
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June 9, 2015

Did You Know The Government Owns 60% Of All US Home Mortgages?

It’s true. The US mortgage market has effectively been nationalized. Here’s how it happened: The Government-Sponsored Enterprises, primarily Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, issued $7 trillion worth of debt and bought up $7 trillion worth of mortgages and other debt securities between 1987 and 2007. They securitized most of the mortgages they acquired and sold…
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May 30, 2015

A Good Overview Of The Global Economic Crisis

Please find here a link to a YouTube video showing a recent conversation I had with my friend Gordon T. Long of Macro Analytics. It provides a very good overview of my views on the causes of the global economic crisis, Quantitative Easing, Credit and the outlook for the economy, asset prices and government policy….
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May 8, 2015

Yellen’s Dilemma: Global Growth or US Growth

The Fed faces a difficult choice. It must decide between boosting global economic growth or boosting US economic growth. If the Fed increases US interest rates, the Dollar will strengthen further. That would cause US exports to fall and imports into the US to increase. As a result, the US Current Account deficit would expand…
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April 25, 2015

Liquidity Gauge Warning: After mid-year, Look Out!

Liquidity determines which way asset prices move. When there is excess liquidity, the price of stocks, bonds and property tends to rise. When liquidity is negative, the price of those assets tends to fall. After two years of excess liquidity – and rapidly appreciating asset prices – liquidity will turn negative in the second half…
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April 16, 2015

Watch Free Video: QE Is Debt Cancellation

Yesterday, I send a blog with a link to a new CNBC interview and a second link to a free video explaining the details of how central banks have effectively cancelled trillions of dollars of government debt and are in the process of cancelling trillions more. The link to the second video did not work,…
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April 6, 2015

Don’t Miss This One! The Chris Martenson Interview

This is one of the very best interviews I have ever participated in. Chris Martenson did a brilliant job, asking all the right questions. This podcast was posted on the PeakProsperity website today under the eye-catching (or even heart-stopping) headline, The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression. We do discuss that risk. But…
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